Election Forecast: President

As Election Day draws ever nearer, it’s time for me to publish my own predictions for this year’s elections. For the presidential race, I foresee the race being very close in the popular vote, but the Electoral College will not reflect this. In recent weeks, both national head-to-head polls and polls in battleground states continue to trend toward or favor Mr. Obama, respectively.

The momentum gained by Mr. Romney after his win in the first presidential debate appears to have vanished–of eight major polls results surveyed (including Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP, and Wash. Post/ABC), Mr. Obama gained ground in five, Mr. Romney gained in one, and two were unchanged. Of these polls, four show Mr. Romney with a narrow lead, three show the President with a narrow lead, and one indicates a deadlock. In five all-important battleground states–including FL, NH, NV, OH, and VA– Mr. Obama has a lead in three of them (NV, OH, VA), Romney is clinging to a 2-point lead in New Hampshire, and the race is tied in Florida.

At this point in the race, most voters have already made up their minds. We’ve had the chance to hear from the candidates in each of the debates, and now it’s a race to the finish line. Barring some catastrophic event, we should continue to see the polls trend in Mr. Obama’s favor over the next week-and-a-half until the election. Below is a map with my electoral college prediction:


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