Final Election Predictions

As Election Day is almost upon us, here are my final predictions for tomorrow’s national elections. As a whole, it looks like it’s going to be a good day to be a Democrat.


Electoral College: Obama 332, Romney 206. Below are my state-by-state predictions.


54 Democrats, 46 Republicans. Again, below are my state-by-state predictions.
(Note: The number of Democrats includes two independents, who are expected to caucus with them)

The only changes between this map and the one I published a few weeks ago is that I’ve now made picks in the three races I had deemed too close to call. The Republican candidates look poised to win in both Arizona and Nevada, and I like Democratic incumbent Jon Tester’s chances in Montana (although a Republican pickup of this seat would not surprise me). Overall, the Democrats will pickup one seat and begin the next Congress with an eight-seat majority–but if Tester loses tomorrow, the party composition will remain as it is now, 53-47 in favor of the Democrats.

House of Representatives

Democrats won’t re-take control of the chamber, but they’ll begin to chip away at the Republican majority. At the start of the 113th Congress, I expect the party composition to look something like this:

237 Republicans, 198 Democrats.



  1. Andrew Dressler

    David, I just cannot agree with you, it will not be a landslide for Obama, I guarantee you that, its gonna be very close, the polls are showing a dead heat, Romney may very well win

    • David

      Yes, the popular vote is going to be close, but there’s simply no way that Romney is going to win the Electoral College–battleground state polls have steadily favored Obama over the closing weeks of the campaign.

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