As Election Day is almost upon us, here are my final predictions for tomorrow’s national elections. As a whole, it looks like it’s going to be a good day to be a Democrat.
Electoral College: Obama 332, Romney 206. Below are my state-by-state predictions.
54 Democrats, 46 Republicans. Again, below are my state-by-state predictions.
(Note: The number of Democrats includes two independents, who are expected to caucus with them)
The only changes between this map and the one I published a few weeks ago is that I’ve now made picks in the three races I had deemed too close to call. The Republican candidates look poised to win in both Arizona and Nevada, and I like Democratic incumbent Jon Tester’s chances in Montana (although a Republican pickup of this seat would not surprise me). Overall, the Democrats will pickup one seat and begin the next Congress with an eight-seat majority–but if Tester loses tomorrow, the party composition will remain as it is now, 53-47 in favor of the Democrats.
House of Representatives
Democrats won’t re-take control of the chamber, but they’ll begin to chip away at the Republican majority. At the start of the 113th Congress, I expect the party composition to look something like this:
237 Republicans, 198 Democrats.